States is at the end of this week and I don't think I'm ready at all. I've tested more than 100 games and I still don't know which deck I'm going to play. It is nerve racking but I've come to a few conclusions.

1. Teachings will be one of, if not the most played deck at states in my opinion. That became obvious when Luis Scott Vargas won GP SF with his build. I don't think that moving archetypes from Time Spiral Block is correct for every deck though. I've seen Teachings builds, Mono U Pickles, UW Blink decks, and Predator decks everywhere, but the only deck that I think is "good" is UW Blink.

Teachings is not a very good control deck. This standard may be perceived to be a step slower, but I think that Gruul and Kithkin builds are fast enough to have good game against most teachings decks. Gruul has the reach with Treetop Villages and burn while Kithkin have a very fast clock with Gaddock Teeg backup. So many of Teachings decks' cards get shut off by Gaddock Teeg that I don't think it should be the base control deck. Also, I despise Triskelavus because I can't see him as a real finisher (I hate 4/4s for 7). But here's really why he's not good: Faerie Trickery, Extirpate, Stonecloaker, and anything else that can remove him from the graveyard. Without Trisk, you have Factories and Shriekmaws as your finishers, which are considerably worse. Teachings also get destroyed by Blink decks' tempo, unless they play obnoxious amounts of instant speed spot removal.

2. Aggro decks will be out in numbers, but I don't think they are the correct choice either (except for the one I've made, which is probably what I will play at States). I think Kithkin are probably the fastest, but they also rely on Gaddock Teeg against control decks too much. It seems like if you have him you have a fairly good chance of winning, and if you don't, have fun trying. Goblins have similar problems to Kithkin. They don't have any real reach. Most goblin list I've seen focus on swarming the board with goblins and trying to beat down fast enough. A Damnation/Wrath of God can swing the game into the control player's favor for the rest of the game. I like Gruul the best because of its reach. Burn will help against aggro decks and blink decks and so will Greater Gargadon and Tarmogoyf. GG, Treetop Village, and burn give the best game against control out of every aggro deck. Also, look for Magus of the Moon to wreck someone's day at States. I won't say what I'm playing because I can't reveal my SST (super-secret-tech) or I will be pwnd.

3. Pickles decks are going to popular as well. I've seen mono U lists as well as UW lists that splash for blinks. Kyle Sanchez made the UW archetype, and I've been using his updated Lorwyn list for my testing. Here's the link to Mr. Sanchez's article:

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14872.html

If you are expecting a control or midrange field, then play mono U, if not then don't. You will be crushed multiple times by aggro decks. UW doesn't have such problems because of blinks (which give you a faster lock and give you some combat tricks) and Riftwatchers and/or WoGs in the sideboard. The pickles lock is still an excellent finish with all the aggro decks floating around and the big mana control decks that want to tap out for a Trisk or another large creature.

4. Some other notable decks that will definitely be in the crowd will be TarmoRack, UW Blink, G/B(/w) aggro decks, and Mono Black Control. TarmoRack is still an excellent deck. My list just replaces Dark Confidant with Oona's Prowler, which so far has been excellent. UW Blink is good because of its surprising speed. Blinked Epochrasites or Maelstrom Djinns provide for a quick finish and gives them very good game against aggro decks. My only problem with the deck is that it uses Blink as a proactive card rather than a reactive one more often than not, which makes it vulnerable to a smart player with spot removal in his deck. Depeding on your list, it doesn't have good game against control decks.

I think that if your list can handle the aggro field and Teachings decks, you should be fine. Here's a list I've been working on for the past day:

4 Horizon Canopy

4 Flagstones of Trokair

4 Arctic Flats

1 Urza's Factory

1 Mouth of Ronom

4 SC Forest

6 SC Plains

4 Masked Admirers

4 Calciderm

4 Wall of Roots

2 Sacred Mesa

3 Harmonize

4 Wrath of God

4 Condemn

4 Oblivion Ring

4 Edge of Autumn

2 Crovax, Ascendant Hero

1 Ajani Goldmane

Sideboard:

4 Aven Riftwatcher

3 Stonecloaker

4 Gaddock Teeg

4 Disenchant

The deck crushes aggro game one, and is decent against control decks in general. Masked Admirers is an amazing draw engine. The Gaddock Teegs and Stonecloakers come in for teachings and Riftwatchers are for Gruul decks. I think if you are sure about your States being an aggro field, pick up this deck and crush those people.

Good luck at states,

HH